Regional Property Market Update Winter 2025: Wales

The property market showed underlying strength despite uncertainty in the run-up to the Autumn Budget, with steady transactions and prices. Greater clarity now should help boost confidence and allow buyers and sellers to move ahead.

Inflation and interest rates

The Bank of England held interest rates at 4% in November, reflecting a cautious approach as inflation remains above target. Inflation came in marginally softer than expected, rising by 3.8% in the year to September. Forecast suggest inflation will be a little lower by year end (3.6%) and more measurable improvement next year (2.4% by end 2026)¹.  While inflation remains elevated, some analysts still see a small chance of a Bank Rate reduction in December, though most economists now anticipate the next cuts to be in 2026, with two further 0.25 percentage point reductions across the year². Any extra improvement will be extra relief to borrowers.

Mortgage rates edge higher after a period of stability

Mortgage rates remained steady following the Bank of England’s decision to hold interest rates in September but have since edged up very slightly. The recent decline in fixed mortgage rates came to an end at the start of autumn, with the average two-year fixed rate (75% LTV) rising from 4.1% in August to 4.2% in September, with a parallel increase in the five-year rate (4.1% to 4.2%) over the same period³. However, product choice remains broad: the number of mortgage deals dipped slightly below 7,000 in October, down from a 17-year high in September but well above the 5,495 available two years ago.

Resilient mortgage approvals

Mortgage approvals, an indicator of longer-term housing demand, have remained resilient despite wider political and economic uncertainty, helping to offset signs of caution elsewhere in the lead-up to the November Budget. In September, there were 65,944 mortgage approvals, just above the median forecast of 64,000 in a Reuters poll of economists. This figure is the highest since December 2024 and slightly above the long-term monthly average rate since 2012³. We are yet to see how the Budget will affect consumer confidence in the coming months, although greater certainty is typically positive for the housing market.

¹ HM Treasury, Average of Independent Forecasts, October 2025, ²Reuters, ³Bank of England

Mixed activity

Transactions edged higher in September¹, however more real-time indicators such as sales agreed show a mixed regional picture, with activity strengthening across parts of Scotland, northern England, and the Midlands, while conditions remain more subdued further south². The number of property sales falling through also edged higher in Q3 2025, up 0.5% year-on-year, reflecting ongoing challenges around financing, delayed chains, and shifting buyer sentiment³. The latest RICS survey reported a decline in near-term sales expectations, signalling some caution in the coming months⁴. However, activity levels are expected to pick up post-Budget as clarity over tax changes was gained, which proved less severe than many had feared. 

Across Wales, the most active housing markets are currently those of Newport, Conwy and Vale of Glamorgan, where close to one in every 31 properties has changed hands in the past year.

Sources: ¹ HMRC, ² Zoopla, ³ TwentyEA, ⁴ RICS

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